Monday, October 6, 2008

Was this the bottom?

Simple answer, No. I think today's decline was too orderly to be considered a capitulation low. Though we got an intraday reversal, if one can call it one, it was not accompanied with huge volume. All the major market index charts formed a new momentum low, that makes me believe that lower prices are in the future. Can we rally from here? Absolutely. There can be n number of reasons for that. An interim fed rate cut or a global intervention and what not? Will that work? It may rally the market for a day or two at most. Yesterday I said that this week will be the most dramatic week of this bear market. I think the market won't find an interim bottom before S&P goes below 1000 and DOW below 9000. My time frame for that to happen is before the expiration week is over. As I am writing this I read that Australia has cut the rates by a full percentage point. Probably the start of a rate cut campaign across the globe. It will be interesting to see how long the euphoria of a rate cut lasts if and when that happens? Does any one really think that the market hasn't discounted it already? At least I don't. Any rally out of a rate cut will be sold smartly by the smart money and will be bought dumbly by the dumb money. Some suckers never learn!

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